Is Michigan State Kryptonite for the Buckeyes? Maybe.
Is Michigan State Kryptonite for the Buckeyes? Maybe.
by Grant Burkhardt, Photo by David Heasley
Ahhhh, there’s nothing like a good, old-fashioned blowout to get the optimism gears turnin’ again, am I right? Poor Maryland, we barely knew ye were in the stadium. Anyway…moving on.
Let’s not fret about whether the freak-out of a few weeks ago, post-Penn State, was warranted. Ohio State had looked lethargic, complacent, bored, even, for a few games, but things have broken the Buckeyes’ way now, and putting aside the fact that one-loss teams have made the playoff in each of its two seasons, the panic isn’t worth it anymore. Ohio State seems to have its destiny in its hands, starting with this week at Michigan State.
Now, Michigan State is having an uncharacteristically bad season. Sparty is 3-7 and riddled with turnover problems and roster turnover, and is a 22.5-point underdog at home this Saturday, but the Buckeyes have really struggled with Michigan State in recent years. MSU accounts for 40 percent of Ohio State’s losses under Urban Meyer. Forty percent equals exactly “two,” of course, but buzz off it sounds good.
What is it about Michigan State – or maybe about coach Mark Dantonio – that’s frustrated the Buckeyes? For starters, the Spartans have always been able to match Ohio State’s power and physicality. They’re worse this year in running offense and running defense, but this isn’t a Michigan State team that’ll shy away from playing the strength game, and this isn’t a game Ohio State can afford to take lightly. The Spartans have a way of sneaking up on teams, winning games they aren’t picked to win, a fact the Buckeyes know very well (see: a year ago) — In fact, the underdog has won every game of this fixture in the Meyer era.
But all that aside, Ohio State is superior this season and should roll, and while Meyer’s team doesn’t have the luxury of looking forward, we do, so let’s do that. The Buckeyes got a crazy lift last week with Michigan, Clemson, and Washington all losing. It vaulted Ohio State into play-your-way-into-the-Playoff territory. But all those losses also helped Penn State, which would, if it wins out and Ohio State does too, actually make the Big Ten title game and knock out OSU in a tiebreaker.
So, from where I sit, here’s the scenario Ohio State is looking at:
If the Buckeyes beat Michigan State and Michigan, they should be in the playoff, regardless if Penn State wins out and takes the spot in the conference championship game.
I’d be surprised if the selection committee left the Buckeyes out entirely – would Pac-12 champ Washington and two-loss, potential conference-winners Penn State and/or Oklahoma jump in ahead of them? I can’t imagine all those teams would get in over a one-loss Ohio State.
And I say that to say this: If Ohio State were 11-1 after wins over the Michigans, would missing the conference title game really be so bad if the Buckeyes were a strong favorite to be, say, the fourth-ranked team in the country come playoff seeding? It’s an extra week of rest, no injuries, no chance of losing if you aren’t playing, etc.
Sure, it all starts this weekend in East Lansing, where (stupid stat alert) Ohio State hasn’t won as a top-five-ranked team, in November, since 1973, but the road to the playoff might include one less game than they’ve needed in the past. That’s not so bad…
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